Where is the global economy heading
Published: 2025-09-17 12:22:53 | Source: Tahirul Islam, Special Correspondent, Dhaka.
The global economy in 2025 is moving forward with mixed signals. Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Fitch Ratings, and other institutions suggest that while overall growth remains slow, technological advances and artificial intelligence (AI) are opening new possibilities.
World Bank projects global growth at 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024.
IMF expects growth at 3%, potentially rising to 3.1% in 2026.
Fitch Ratings predicts a slight slowdown to 2.4%.
PwC estimates growth at 2.6%.
Regional Outlook
Developing economies are expected to grow faster. South Asia is projected to expand at 5.8%, with India anticipating 6% export growth, while Pakistan may achieve 2.5% growth as it recovers from debt challenges.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence
The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that AI could boost global trade by 34–37% and global GDP by 12–13% by 2040. This will increase productivity and allow lower-income countries to participate more effectively in global markets.
Risks and Challenges
Trade barriers and new tariff policies are affecting exports.
Reduced productivity forecasts in the UK may slow GDP growth.
Geopolitical instability is impacting investment flows.
Bangladesh’s Context
Bangladesh’s economy may achieve around 6% growth in 2025, though it must navigate global trade disruptions, inflation, and export challenges. Experts suggest that leveraging digital transformation and AI could help the country create new opportunities even amid slow global growth.
Summary
Although the global economy is on a slow-growth path, technological progress—especially AI—offers significant potential. Developing nations are likely to benefit relatively more, but trade restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties remain key challenges.
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World Bank projects global growth at 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024.
IMF expects growth at 3%, potentially rising to 3.1% in 2026.
Fitch Ratings predicts a slight slowdown to 2.4%.
PwC estimates growth at 2.6%.
Regional Outlook
Developing economies are expected to grow faster. South Asia is projected to expand at 5.8%, with India anticipating 6% export growth, while Pakistan may achieve 2.5% growth as it recovers from debt challenges.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence
The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that AI could boost global trade by 34–37% and global GDP by 12–13% by 2040. This will increase productivity and allow lower-income countries to participate more effectively in global markets.
Risks and Challenges
Trade barriers and new tariff policies are affecting exports.
Reduced productivity forecasts in the UK may slow GDP growth.
Geopolitical instability is impacting investment flows.
Bangladesh’s Context
Bangladesh’s economy may achieve around 6% growth in 2025, though it must navigate global trade disruptions, inflation, and export challenges. Experts suggest that leveraging digital transformation and AI could help the country create new opportunities even amid slow global growth.
Summary
Although the global economy is on a slow-growth path, technological progress—especially AI—offers significant potential. Developing nations are likely to benefit relatively more, but trade restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties remain key challenges.