The ongoing war between the United States and Iran is increasingly affecting not only the Middle East but also the global economy, energy security, international trade and diplomacy. The conflict began on February 28, 2026, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran and has continued in various forms for several months. Although multiple initiatives have been undertaken to halt major hostilities, a lasting agreement has yet to be reached.

Current State of the War

In the latest developments, direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran has continued alongside increased activity by Iran-backed groups in various parts of the Middle East.

According to a Reuters report dated October 7, the conflict has entered its eighth month. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance has said that ending the war would require Iran to make a “meaningful” reduction in its uranium enrichment capabilities. Although channels of communication remain open between Washington and Tehran, significant differences persist over the terms of a possible agreement.

Iran has emphasized ending the war, easing the blockade, lifting economic sanctions and releasing frozen assets as key issues in negotiations. The United States, meanwhile, is demanding strict restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme and uranium enrichment activities.

The Strait of Hormuz: The Biggest Concern

One of the most critical flashpoints in the current crisis is the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, carries a substantial share of the world's oil and gas shipments.

Several attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have been reported recently. Reuters has reported that the number of tanker attacks in the strait last week reached its highest level in any single week since the war began.

On October 6, an attack on a Panama-flagged vessel reportedly injured 12 crew members. Earlier, another oil tanker travelling through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile.

An adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on October 7 that Iran could move to close transit routes it considers illegal. This has created further uncertainty for international shipping and global energy markets.

Risks to Global Oil Prices

Rising military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz can have an immediate impact on international energy markets.

A major disruption to oil supplies could lead to:

• Higher international crude oil prices;
• Increased petrol and diesel prices;
• Rising transportation costs;
• Higher expenses for air and maritime transport;
• Increased industrial production costs; and
• Upward pressure on food and essential commodity prices.

However, oil prices have also declined somewhat in recent days. This indicates that market reactions depend not only on the intensity of the conflict but also on the actual extent of supply disruptions, the availability of alternative routes and market expectations.

Renewed Pressure in Yemen and the Red Sea

Another important dimension of the conflict is Yemen.

Iran-backed Houthi forces have demonstrated their ability to attack Saudi Arabia and other regional targets. According to Reuters, the Houthis launched attacks using ballistic missiles and explosive-laden drones against Aden International Airport in Yemen on October 7.

As a result, risks to commercial shipping are increasing not only in the Strait of Hormuz but also around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea.

In other words, the war is now affecting two major maritime corridors in the Middle East simultaneously—the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Mounting Pressure on Iran’s Economy

The prolonged war is also placing considerable pressure on Iran’s economy.

Oil exports, international sanctions, infrastructure damage, military expenditure and restrictions on commercial connectivity have all contributed to the economic strain, according to various analyses. A recent Reuters report noted that a prolonged US blockade is putting significant pressure on Iran’s oil exports and government revenues.

The consequences could also affect the cost of living, employment and the availability of goods for ordinary Iranians.

Economic and Military Pressure on the United States

Iran is not the only country bearing the cost of the war. Prolonged military operations are also proving expensive for the United States.

A Reuters analysis has indicated that the extended conflict is placing pressure on US military assets and missile stockpiles. The political and economic costs of the war have also become subjects of debate within the United States.

Another major risk for Washington is that US military bases, allied countries and commercial interests across the Middle East could increasingly become targets or be drawn into the conflict.

Israel and the Middle East Security Situation

Israel has joined the United States in military operations against Iran. Consequently, the conflict is no longer merely a bilateral war between two countries; it is increasingly affecting the broader Middle Eastern security architecture.

Iran-backed groups operating in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and other areas pose a risk of further escalation. Reuters has reported that Iran is preparing to broaden its response if the United States launches another major attack, although no final decision has been made.

The Nuclear Programme: The Core Dispute

Iran’s nuclear programme remains one of the central issues in the US–Iran conflict.

Washington wants Tehran to significantly reduce its uranium enrichment capabilities. On October 6, US Vice President JD Vance said that ending the war would be difficult without a “meaningful” reduction in these capabilities.

Iran, on the other hand, has maintained its position regarding its nuclear programme and its sovereign rights.

The most difficult question in negotiations to end the war is therefore what the future of Iran’s nuclear capabilities will look like and what sanctions the United States would agree to lift in return.

Potential Impact on Bangladesh

The US–Iran war could also affect Bangladesh, particularly through energy prices and import costs.

1. Fuel Prices

If global oil prices rise, Bangladesh may have to spend more on fuel imports. This could increase transportation and electricity generation costs.

2. Import Costs

Growing risks to maritime shipping could push up international shipping and insurance costs. This, in turn, could increase the prices of imported goods in Bangladesh.

3. The Garment Sector

Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports depend heavily on major markets, including Europe and the United States. If the war contributes to global inflation and reduces consumer spending, demand for garments could be affected indirectly.

4. Bangladeshi Expatriate Workers

A large number of Bangladeshis work across the Middle East. If the conflict spreads further into Gulf countries, it could affect the safety, employment and remittance transfers of Bangladeshi migrant workers.

5. Food and Essential Commodities

Higher fuel and transportation costs could increase the prices of imported food and other essential goods. This could place additional pressure on inflation in Bangladesh.

New Geopolitical Alignments

The war is reshaping relations among the United States, Iran, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries.

While the United States is strengthening its military presence to protect its allies, Iran is exerting counterpressure through regional partners and allied groups.

As a result, the diplomatic calculations of Russia, China, the European Union and Gulf countries are also becoming increasingly important.

Could the War Expand Further?

It is difficult to predict the future course of the conflict with certainty. However, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi operations in Yemen and Iran’s preparations for a potentially stronger retaliatory response have made the situation more complicated.

At the same time, diplomatic communication between the United States and Iran has not completely broken down. Therefore, alongside military confrontation, the possibility of negotiations remains open.

Conclusion

The US–Iran war is no longer merely a military confrontation between two countries. It has become intertwined with Middle Eastern security, nuclear ambitions, oil and gas supplies, international shipping routes, global trade and the stability of the world economy.

A major and prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could affect economies across Asia and Europe, as well as import-dependent countries such as Bangladesh.

Conversely, an effective agreement between Washington and Tehran on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions and security concerns could create an opportunity to reduce regional tensions.

However, according to information available as of October 7, 2026, the path to a lasting peace agreement remains uncertain, and the risk of further escalation persists.